This article is the sequel to my first article on the same issue. I am going to update my understanding on the relationship as events progress as an exercise of psychohistory.
Tibet’s riot has initialize a storm of criticism of China’s human rights issue. Given that Communist China has an extremely poor image in European’s mind. In a sense, Tibet is often seen as the world capital of Buddhism. There is an inherent tension between China Communist’s atheism and Theistic Buddhism in Tibet. To be seen globally, Tibet is like the last castle of religion in an Atheist empire. Thus when this stereotype activated, Beijing would have little friends left in the Western world. Like it or not, Beijing’s image-building effort with Olympic has already been ruined.
The effect on Taiwan election is likely to be minor, since the common ground between the Democratic Progressive and Nationalist Party is that Communist China is a violent regime ruled by force. As huge number of Taiwanese operating business in Communist China, they already got use to the incivility of communist China in their daily life as compare to Taiwan. So that only reinforce what they have in mind. However, the call for unification by any Taiwan political parties would become a taboo.
From the perspective of Beijing Olympic, Tibet riot is unlikely to produce the friendly image that Communist regime would like to project into the world. The world is more likely to see that as gigantic whitewashing exercise, and foreign media more likely to try to dig the dirt out of this event to make news(For instance, how many citizen are forced out of their place to make room for Olympic, how many lands has took over by government using illegal means, how many unwelcome peasant from other peasant are denied work and place of resident, how many factories are forced to halt their operation to make a clear sky.)
Taiwan election has an uncertain effect to the Beijing Olympic. Because it would elicit the wish of the deeply repressed political will of the mass at one side, while the certain victory of Pro-Unification Nationalist Party would elicit a nationalist feeling, warmth and acceptance toward the Taiwanese as Chinese. If manage right, Beijing Olympic could be an ideal outlet for nationalistic feeling. However, it is difficult to the need for Beijing to appease Westerns’ increased appetite to protect human right while satisfying the local population’s need to glorious feeling.
Taiwan’s election would have excited the nationalistic feeling of Tibetan, since Communist China love to portray Taiwan as a sedating province. So, in Tibetans’ mind, it is a part of China electing their own president democratically; while the People’s Congress in China is commonly seen by Hans, Tibetans, Mongols, Manchurian and Muslims as rubber stamp. The victory of Nationalistic Party would likely elicit the uneasy feeling in Tibetan, while the victory of Democratic Progressive Party almost certainly guarantee a riot in Tibetan.
Communist China intend to use Beijing Olympic event as pull for the Pro-unification force in Taiwan politics. While some Taiwanese seen it as glory for Chinese as a race, other see that as a reminder of face-building politics of Progressive Democratic Party now and Nationalist Party during the martial rule. It thus likely to polarize the electorate as a whole.